Many clients ask: “Why do I keep hearing that the Fed is cutting rates, but the mortgage rates are going up? My broker says my interest rate is determined by T-bill rates, but those rates have dropped and mortgage rates haven’t fallen. What gives? What don’t I understand about the Fed rate cuts and mortgages?”
Don’t worry, you are not alone in your confusion. Its not as complicated as many think – what is surprising is how many financial professionals don’t know the answer either. I hear almost daily from people in the financial media, real estate and lending professions, including those from the public two misconceptions.
1. The first is how mortgage rates are determined.
2. What is the affect on mortgage interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve Board?
How are mortgage interest rates determined?
The only correct answer is Mortgage Bonds or Mortgage Backed Securities. Mortgage rates are not based on the 10-year Treasury Note. When shopping for a new home loan, many of you will jump online to your favorite financial web site to see how the 10-year Treasury Bill is doing. In reality mortgage-backed securities (MBS), are what cause mortgage rates to fluctuate. In fact, it is not unusual to see Mortgage Backed Securities and the 10-year Treasury Note, move in completely different directions. Without professional guidance, that confusing movement could lead you to make a poor long term financial decision.
Do not feel bad, I have seen many bond market reporters mistakenly tie mortgage rates to the performance of the 10-year T-Bill. Many of these financial reporters possess a broad knowledge of bond markets, but they are not mortgage experts and do not fully comprehend how mortgage interest rates are determined. Take it from some one that knows – it is not uncommon to watch the morning or evening news and hear misinformation and incorrect advice being delivered from the guests and so-called experts.
Think about this: the financial markets move faster than you may expect — recently at lightning speeds. When investors spot a short-term stimulus, they bail out of the safe haven of bonds (Mortgage-Backed Securities) and move those dollars into stocks. When this happens, we see a rally in the stock market and a sell-off of mortgage backed securities, both of which cause Interest rates to go up. On the reverse side — when disappointing economic reports come out, the investors pull those same dollars out of the stock market and go back to the safety of the bond market, which causes interest rates to move lower. My suggestion is to avoid working with any lending professionals that do not understand which indicators determine mortgage rates.
The Fed Lowered Rates - Why Aren’t Rates Going Down?
When the Federal Reserve Board known as the Feds, lowers the short-term Discount Rate or the Fed Funds rate this is designed to stimulate consumer spending on short-term credit, which affects credit card rates, some car loans and lines of credit. The short-term discount rate and fed funds rate have no affect on long-term mortgage rates.
We have all heard the radio commercials from lenders: “The Fed is at is again — slashing rates. Don’t miss this opportunity to get the lowest rates in years! Call us today, before it’s too late!” We even hear it on the nightly news: “Fed set to cut rates again. This action will help to stimulate the housing market”.
They aren’t necessarily lying to us, but they are being disingenuous by implying that mortgage rates are going to follow suit and fall. Do not fall for this misinformation. It gets listeners and viewer’s attention just like intended, but that is as far as it goes. Advertisers are trying to make the phone ring and the media is trying to sell viewership for ratings, nothing more. If you need to know what the markets are really doing, or the effect of any action made by the Federal Reserve Board, please take the time to call a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist.
The Reality of Fed Rate Cuts
When the Fed cuts the rates, especially by a large percentage or multiple smaller cuts, people automatically assume that mortgage rates will fall. What is important here is that the Federal Reserve Board cuts the fed funds rates not mortgage rates. Fed funds are the rates banks charge one another to borrow money. But if you follow mortgage rates, like I do, you will see that most of the time, when the fed funds rate is cut, mortgage rates actually increase. Historically, when the Feds have dramatically cut rates, mortgage rates increase due to the presence of inflation. Inflation is the number one enemy of bonds ( Mortgage Backed Securities). Often these increases to mortgage rates are factored in days or weeks ahead of a pending cut by the Federal Reserve Board.
On the other side of the equation is, that when the Federal Reserve Board raises the rate on Fed Funds – mortgage interest rates trend lower. I caution my clients to try to avoid the knee jerk reaction to these types of reports – if you are working with a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist, they will be able to guide you in the right direction. Working with a professional that understands the current economic data and reports, and its relationship to mortgage interest rates is crucial in helping obtain the best rates.
How do I get the best interest rate?
Have you ever heard the story of the person who just refinanced at 5.75% only to find out a few days later his co-worker refinanced for 5%? This scenario plays itself out week after week around water coolers in offices across the country. So how could this be? Do you really have to shop around that much to get a good rate? How do you shop around? Read on, I will try to answer all these questions and more.
Getting the best interest rate on your mortgage is much like trying to find the best burger, the best music or the best car. It is all very much dependent on you! The taste of a burger or the rhythm in music is very much a unique and personal preference. Mortgage interest rates are very similar, they are determined based on how you qualify. Much like a fingerprint, no two individuals have the same financial profile, the same borrowing criteria and or have the same plan for their financial futures. A younger persons concerns are far different compared to an older person looking to retire in a few years, there are many, many factors that go into determining the rate you are offered. I will try to cover the majority of those factors and share with you the tips on getting the best rate for you.
Let me start out by saying that if you call up a bank or a mortgage broker and ask what the rate is on a 30 yr fixed - you will most certainly get a incorrect quote. In fact with all of the factors that go into determining a rate for a specific client - I would consider it extremely unprofessional for anyone to quote a rate to a client with out a complete application and credit analysis. Here is why – there is a base rate for a 30 yr fixed mortgage, then there are all the multiple adjustments both added too and subtracted from the base rate to determine the rate for the specific client. The latest data suggests that with on line quotes like bank rate .com that 1% of the clients actually receive the rate they were quoted.
The basic compensating factors that affect rates are as follows: Credit scores, LTV ( loan to value of home), Loan amount, Type of property (owner occupied, second home or investment) Type of loan ( fixed, adjustable, interest only) The loan program ( conventional, FHA, USDA-RD, Jumbo) - all these just to get started. Once the above is determined then you need to move on to the secondary adjustments which include the following – Risk based FICO adjustments, No escrows, paying discount points, then there are compounded adjustments that combine such criteria as Credit score and LTV for another adjustment.
It has become a mathematical challenge, to accurately account for all the adjustments and quote the actual rate that the client qualifies for. Each lender has their own set of adjustments – so it can be very difficult to compare the best rate. Most seasoned professionals are now utilizing programs to help search the best rates. Although they are very costly to subscribe to - these programs take your personal profile and every detail of the loan requested into account and list off every avail program and the rates for each. To do this manually could take hours for each loan.
Tips on getting the best rate
- The best advice I can give anyone is to find a local trusted professional, and be prepared to give complete and accurate information. A local professional has an interest in delivering a great experience to the people in his community. On-line companies or Brokers located across the state that you will never see, do not always share this value.
- Once you have identified a trusted professional, do not be afraid to interview him/her. Asking a few simple questions will help you determine if this professional has the expertise to guide you thru the process. Questions such as, how long have you been in this business? What indicators determine interest rates? What economic reports are due out this week that can move the markets? In addition, always ask for a reference list of recently closed, past clients. Check those references! If a Professional cannot give you this information right on the spot – find one that can.
- Know your credit score! - The single biggest factor in getting a great rate is your credit score. Make sure it accurately reflects your history and make any necessary corrections prior to inquiring about a mortgage.
- Ask if they would suggest locking the rate, or waiting? Then ask why? – The answer should make sense.
- Request that your communications be documented in writing, email works best. Too often, important details are discussed and forgotten. This is especially true when it come to getting the rate you were quoted.
- Call at least two trusted professionals and be consistent with all the details. Take notes and compare the information each has given you.
- Ask for a GFE (Good Faith Estimate) - this will allow you to compare two lenders side by side in both rate and closing costs.
- Do not compare a rate from yesterday to a rate today – interest rates can vary a lot from one given day to the next. Do all your comparisons in the same day.
…
Today’s financial markets can see interest rate changes up to twice in a business day. With these volatile swings, it is important that you work with a CMPS that understands the economic indicators that influence these changes. Whether you are purchasing a new home or refinancing your existing home, it is most likely one of the biggest financial transactions of your life. You owe it to your self and your family to ask questions, make sure the individual understands your financial goals and you feel comfortable with them, and the answers your given. For additional help and advice, please contact me.